Réseau Météo Français

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Mar 20 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 20-Mar 22 2017 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 20-Mar 22 2017

            Mar 20     Mar 21     Mar 22
00-03UT        2          2          3     
03-06UT        2          2          3     
06-09UT        1          2          3     
09-12UT        1          1          2     
12-15UT        1          1          2     
15-18UT        1          2          3     
18-21UT        1          2          3     
21-00UT        2          3          4     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. 
Unsettled to active levels are expected on day three (22 Mar) due to the
arrival of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 20-Mar 22 2017

              Mar 20  Mar 21  Mar 22
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 20-Mar 22 2017

              Mar 20        Mar 21        Mar 22
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.